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Maths · Further statistics

Sampling

Understand populations and samples, spot bias, take random, stratified and systematic samples, and estimate a population using capture-recapture.

  • 6 key terms
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Teacher resources

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Student handouts

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Warm-up

Answer each one, then check.

  1. 1

    What is a percentage of an amount, e.g. 10% of 300?

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    \(30\)

  2. 2

    What is the mean of 4, 6 and 8?

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    \(6\)

  3. 3

    Simplify the ratio \(20 : 30\).

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    \(2 : 3\)

  4. 4

    What does "random" mean?

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    Every item has an equal chance of being chosen

  5. 5

    What is a fraction of a total, e.g. \(\tfrac{1}{4}\) of 80?

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    \(20\)

Learning Objectives

  1. 1Explain the difference between a population and a sample.
  2. 2Recognise and describe bias in a sample.
  3. 3Take a random, a systematic and a stratified sample.
  4. 4Estimate a population size using capture-recapture (Higher).

SAMPLING

A sample should be a small group that fairly represents the whole population.

A bigger, random sample is more likely to be representative and give reliable results.

Types of Sample

Know how each one is chosen.

  • Random

    How it is chosen: Every member has an equal chance, e.g. numbers from a random number generator. Good point: Not biased

  • Systematic

    How it is chosen: Every \(k\)th member from a list, after a random start. Good point: Easy and quick

  • Stratified

    How it is chosen: Groups sampled in proportion to their size. Good point: Represents every group

  • Convenience

    How it is chosen: The people who are easiest to reach. Good point: Cheap, but often biased

A Stratified Sample

A school has 200 pupils in Year 9, 160 in Year 10 and 240 in Year 11. A stratified sample of 60 pupils is taken. How many pupils come from each year?

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  1. 1 Total pupils \(200 + 160 + 240 = 600\)
  2. 2 Fraction sampled \(\dfrac{60}{600} = \dfrac{1}{10}\)
  3. 3 Year 9 \(200 \div 10 = 20\)
  4. 4 Year 10 \(160 \div 10 = 16\)
  5. 5 Year 11 \(240 \div 10 = 24\)

Answer20 from Year 9, 16 from Year 10 and 24 from Year 11.

A Systematic Sample

A list has 800 names. A systematic sample of 40 names is needed. Describe how to take it.

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  1. 1 Interval \(800 \div 40 = 20\)
  2. 2 Random start Pick a random number from 1 to 20, e.g. 7
  3. 3 Then Take every 20th name: 7, 27, 47, and so on

AnswerChoose a random start between 1 and 20, then take every 20th name.

Capture-Recapture (Higher)

50 fish are caught, tagged and released. Later, 40 fish are caught and 8 of them are tagged. Estimate the number of fish in the lake.

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  1. 1 Proportion tagged in the second sample \(\dfrac{8}{40}\)
  2. 2 Set equal to the proportion tagged in the lake \(\dfrac{8}{40} = \dfrac{50}{N}\)
  3. 3 Rearrange \(N = \dfrac{50 \times 40}{8} = 250\)

AnswerThere are about 250 fish in the lake.

Bias

A sample is biased if some members are more likely to be chosen than others.

  • Where you ask

    Asking only people at a football match about sport is biased.

  • Who answers

    Only those who reply to an online poll may hold stronger views.

  • Sample too small

    Small samples can be unrepresentative just by chance.

  • Fix it

    Use a random method and a large enough sample.

Fair or Biased?

Decide whether each sample is fair or biased and explain why. (a) Asking 20 people leaving a gym how much they exercise. (b) Choosing 30 pupils at random from the register. (c) Asking the first 10 people to arrive at school about school start times.

1. Ask who might be missing.

2. Suggest a fairer method.

A good answer shows: (a) Biased: gym users exercise more than most people. (b) Fair: random. (c) Biased: early arrivals may have different views (for example they may travel by bus).

Can I...?

  1. 1Define population and sample.
  2. 2Spot bias.
  3. 3Take a random sample.
  4. 4Take a systematic sample.
  5. 5Work out a stratified sample.
  6. 6Explain why bigger is better.
  7. 7Use capture-recapture.
  8. 8Give a reason for my choice.

Summary & Exam Focus

  • Sample = part of the population.
  • Random samples avoid bias.
  • Stratified: number in each group \(= \dfrac{\text{group}}{\text{population}} \times \text{sample size}\).
  • Capture-recapture: \(N = \dfrac{\text{first} \times \text{second}}{\text{tagged in second}}\).

Exam focus

A school has 200 pupils in Year 9, 160 in Year 10 and 240 in Year 11. Alex takes a stratified sample of 60 pupils. How many pupils should he take from each year? (3 marks) (3 marks)

Find the fraction sampled, then multiply each group by it.

Key terms

The vocabulary this lesson expects you to use. Each one is linked from the first place it appears above.

Population
The whole group you want to know about.
Sample
A smaller group taken from the population.
Bias
Unfairness that makes a sample unrepresentative.
Random sample
Every member has an equal chance of selection.
Stratified sample
A sample split into groups in proportion to the population.
Capture-recapture
A method to estimate the size of a wild population.

Questions and answers

12 questions set on this lesson, with the mark schemes and model answers open.

1. Exam question Work out 3 marks Easier

A school has 200 pupils in Year 9, 160 in Year 10 and 240 in Year 11. Alex takes a stratified sample of 60 pupils. Work out how many pupils he should take from each year.

Mark scheme — 3 marks available

  • \(\dfrac{60}{600}\) or equivalent — M1
  • Any two correct — M1
  • All three correct — A1

Model answer

Year 9: 20; Year 10: 16; Year 11: 24.

2. Exam question Explain 2 marks Easier

Priya wants to find out how much exercise pupils in her school do. She asks 20 pupils leaving the school gym. Give one reason why her sample may be biased.

Mark scheme — 2 marks available

  • Reason linked to gym users — M1
  • Not representative — C1

Model answer

The pupils at the gym probably exercise more than most pupils, so the sample is not representative of the whole school.

3. Exam question Describe 2 marks Easier

There are 900 pupils on a school register. Describe how to take a systematic sample of 60 pupils.

Mark scheme — 2 marks available

  • 15 — M1
  • Random start and every 15th — A1

Model answer

\(900 \div 60 = 15\). Choose a random start between 1 and 15, then take every 15th pupil on the list.

4. Exam question Estimate 3 marks Easier

60 fish are caught in a lake, tagged and put back. Later, 30 fish are caught and 5 of them are tagged. Estimate the number of fish in the lake.

Mark scheme — 3 marks available

  • \(\dfrac{5}{30} = \dfrac{60}{N}\) — M1
  • \(\dfrac{60 \times 30}{5}\) — M1
  • 360 — A1

Model answer

\(\dfrac{5}{30} = \dfrac{60}{N}\), so \(N = 360\).

5. Exam question Give a reason 2 marks Easier

Sam takes a random sample of 10 people to find the mean height of adults in a town. Give one way he could improve his sample.

Mark scheme — 2 marks available

  • Larger sample — M1
  • Random or representative — A1

Model answer

Use a larger sample, still chosen at random, so it is more likely to represent the town.

6. Exam question Work out 3 marks Easier

A club has 30 boys and 20 girls. A stratified sample of 10 members is taken. Work out how many boys and how many girls are in the sample.

Mark scheme — 3 marks available

  • \(\dfrac{10}{50}\) or \(\tfrac{1}{5}\) — M1
  • 6 — A1
  • 4 — A1

Model answer

6 boys and 4 girls.

7. Multiple choice 1 mark Easier

A sample is biased if...

  1. A It is too large
  2. B It is random
  3. C It does not represent the population fairly Correct
  4. D It is stratified

Why: Some members are more likely to be chosen than others.

8. Multiple choice 1 mark Core

In a stratified sample, the number from each group is...

  1. A The same for every group
  2. B In proportion to the group size Correct
  3. C Chosen by the surveyor
  4. D Always 10

Why: In proportion to the size of the group.

9. Multiple choice 1 mark Core

A systematic sample of 20 from 400 uses every...

  1. A 5th
  2. B 10th
  3. C 15th
  4. D 20th Correct

Why: \(400 \div 20 = 20\), so every 20th.

10. Multiple choice 1 mark Core

Which is a random method?

  1. A Random number generator Correct
  2. B Asking friends
  3. C Asking volunteers
  4. D Choosing the first 10

Why: A random number generator gives every member an equal chance.

11. Multiple choice 1 mark Core

20 fish tagged; a second sample of 10 has 2 tagged. The estimate is...

  1. A 40
  2. B 50
  3. C 100 Correct
  4. D 400

Why: \(20 \times 10 \div 2 = 100\).

12. Multiple choice 1 mark Stretch

A larger random sample is usually...

  1. A Less reliable
  2. B More reliable Correct
  3. C Biased
  4. D Cheaper

Why: More reliable, because it is more likely to represent the population.